The Scout Vision Top 5 for 5 Quarterly Report (Q2 2017)
In this Latest Forecast, Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV is the “Comeback Kid” of U.S. Metros; Watertown-Fort Drum, NY Economy Falls on Hard Times
Scout Vision’s exclusive 5-year Home Price Forecast provides a looking glass into every neighborhood in the United States. Now, you can determine how a location’s past and future forecast home price appreciation rate compares across Metro Areas, ZIP Codes, or even among Micro-Neighborhoods™ below ZIP Codes (nearly 10X smaller than the average ZIP Code), with seamless national coverage.
“The Scout Vision Top 5 for 5” quarterly report highlights the Top 5 Metros that Scout Vision predicts to appreciate in value the most and the least over the next 5 years by Q2 2022. The report will be released quarterly with forecasts 5 years from the current quarter.
The Top 5 Metropolitan Areas Forecasted to Rise in Real Estate Prices Over the Next 5 Years (Q2 2017 – Q2 2022)
| Rank | Highest Forecasted Appreciation Metros | Forecasted Appreciation by Metro | Within Metro: Lowest Neighborhood Appreciation Forecasted | Within Metro: Highest Neighborhood Appreciation Forecasted | Highest to Lowest Neighborhood Appreciation Range |
| 1 | Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV Metro Area | 56.4% | 6.4% | 102.9% | 96.5% |
| 2 | The Villages, FL Metro Area | 44.8% | 5.9% | 77.4% | 71.5% |
| 3 | Yuma, AZ Metro Area | 41.7% | 30.9% | 54.2% | 23.3% |
| 4 | McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX Metro Area | 41.1% | 16.3% | 62.2% | 45.9% |
| 5 | El Paso, TX Metro Area | 37.5% | 13.7% | 55.6% | 41.9% |
The Top 5 Metropolitan Areas Forecasted to Fall in Real Estate Prices Over the Next 5 Years (Q2 2017 – Q2 2022)
| Rank | Highest Forecasted Appreciation Metros | Forecasted Appreciation by Metro | Within Metro: Lowest Neighborhood Appreciation Forecasted | Within Metro: Highest Neighborhood Appreciation Forecasted | Highest to Lowest Neighborhood Appreciation Range |
| 1 | Watertown-Fort Drum, NY Metro Area | -13.4% | -15.5% | -10.7% | 4.8% |
| 2 | Boulder, CO Metro Area | -11.6% | -22.4% | 0.9% | 23.3% |
| 3 | Sebring, FL Metro Area | -5.6% | -13.8% | 1.5% | 15.3% |
| 4 | Asheville, NC Metro Area | -3.3% | -15.2 | 6.1% | 21.3% |
| 5 | Beckley, WV Metro Area | -2.0% | -8.5% | 7.9% | 16.4% |
About the List
Metropolitan areas are ranked by overall forecasted appreciation. But the lists above also highlight significant variation in forecasted appreciation by neighborhood within each metro.
Sometimes the variation from the lowest forecasted appreciation neighborhood to the highest can be greater than the overall forecasted appreciation for that metro. This reveals that – as many investors, lenders and appraisers have experienced – much of the opportunity and risks depend on where in the metro area the subject property is located. Not just the broad ZIP Code, but the specific Micro-Neighborhood.
About the Metros
Las Vegas has a boom and bust history, so why does it top our list for the next five years? Simply put, Las Vegas in 2017 is not the same Las Vegas of ten years ago.
Today Las Vegas has nearly everything going for it. In almost every category Scout Vision tracks, Las Vegas is a metropolitan region on the rise. Wages are up more than nearly any metro in America, as are the number of jobs being added to the economy, and the metropolitan population is rapidly expanding. Simultaneously, unemployment is down more than nearly any place in America. And, while housing affordability has declined from a few years ago, rising wages support increasing real estate prices, something that was missing in the last boom. Note that rising wages today can help to protect the area from a repeat of the large housing price declines in the metro area that followed the economic downturn of 2008-9.
Will Las Vegas real estate values climb for the next ten or twenty years? History says likely not, as this metro area has a history of higher volatility than most. But the next five years look very strong for the Las Vegas area. Last quarter’s forecast showed the Las Vegas metro preforming strongly, but as the area continues to recover from the downturn of 2008-9, and new jobs are created, the metro area now takes the title as the area most likely to increase in real estate values the most over the next five years.
Conversely, the Watertown-Fort Drum metropolitan area is forecast to decline in value more than other metro areas over the next five years (between now and Q2 2022). Watertown, in far upstate New York and leeward of Lake Ontario, receives over ten feet of snow in the typical season. But that is not why Scout Vision predicts that real estate values here will decline. Yes, a long, hard snowy winter is no incentive for real estate values to climb. But not all metros in decline are located in the snow belt. The indicators identified to predict a continued decline here include a decreasing population over the last two years, a loss of jobs, a concurrent increase in people here registering for unemployment benefits, and some of the slowest growing incomes in the nation.
Watertown-Fort Drum made the list of the top 5 metros likely to decline last quarter. With the evolving economic climate, combined with a new forecast that goes out an additional quarter into the future, this area has risen to the top of Scout Vision’s list of metro areas likely to lose the most real estate value over the next five years.
About the Data
Industry veterans and PhD geographers developed Scout Vision by drawing on over a decade of research and development and leveraging the latest geo-statistical techniques and theory. Scout Vision’s 5-year Micro-Neighborhood™ Home Price Forecast is based on 200+ independent variables, 35+ unique data dimensions, and 21 custom, geographically nested, hierarchical models that capture market forces which operate at various spatial and time scales to drive price changes block by block.
Thus, Scout Vision uniquely identifies otherwise unseen opportunity by generating home appreciation projections that combine unprecedented geographic precision with up to 90% predictive accuracy.
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